Why will your idea fail?
The importance of conducting a ‘pre-mortem’
Among my friends, I am notoriously delusional.
I know that bad things can happen, but I never accept that they will happen to me. Sounds familiar?
I recently completed the book Diary of a CEO by Steve Bartlett, and I learned so many lessons from it. In today’s letter, I want to share one question that this book put in my head.
“Why will your idea fail?”
Maybe you want to start creating content in a new niche.
Or write a book you plan to sell.
Or propose a new strategy to reduce the cost of acquiring new clients for your company.
Or start a new business.
I’m sure you’ve been excited about the outcome. How people will say your book touched their lives. Or the amazing comments you would get on your new YouTube video.
But after fleshing out your plans — before executing them — ask yourself (and teammates if possible) “why will this idea fail?” What areas have we not covered? Is there something still missing? Are we making any wrong assumptions about our capabilities/customers/the market?
In 2021, Steve Bartlett’s podcast ‘Diary of a CEO (DOAC)’ had become a huge success several years post-launch. Because of this, he planned to launch an entire podcast network — “a multitude of fresh podcasts, each featuring renowned and talented hosts” — while leveraging the teams commercial, marketing and production expertise.
His team put in 1 year’s worth of time and financial resources against this. Then shortly before the planned launch, he called the members of his team for a meeting and ask them the question:
“Why is this a bad idea?”
Eventually, some teammates pointed out:
(i) employees’ talents and time may be spread too thin, jeopardizing the success of his current podcast;
(ii) the current economic conditions may make it harder to get much needed sponsorships;
(iii) it may be difficult to replicate the success of DOAC since some of it was due to luck, circumstance and fortune.
Needless to say, that idea was put on hold.
You should evaluate all your ideas the same way. Conduct a ’pre-mortem’ as Steven calls it. Check every aspect of the idea to find weak spots and loopholes. Does it solve the problems of your audience? Do you have the resources to drive it? Is it the right time to launch?
Write down all possible reasons for failure, and cross them off one by one. Any reason that can’t be crossed off, you need to address it, or defer your launch until it is fixed.
FYI Steven eventually launched his podcast network this year. So if you’ve identified a solid reason why your idea will fail, put it on hold if you have to. Tackle the issue, then launch when ready.
And yes, no idea is ever perfect before launch. But there’s a huge difference between having an imperfect logo/branding, and not having enough financial resources.
If you plan to launch any new ideas soon, I hope you ask yourself (and team) this question. And once major obstacles are cleared, I hope you launch before you feel 100% ready 😉
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